Bitcoin, the first largest cryptocurrency, has had it rough since it reached its peak at $19,500. After the 2017 December to 2018 January frenzy ended, everyone was expecting BTC to recover. Unfortunately, it didn’t recover and things only got worse. Right now, BTC is hovering above $4,000 and there is no saying when another bear grip will take the price below this level.
As expected, some experts have given their opinion about the current bear market and most of them don’t think it’s going to end soon. While BTC may find stability short-term, it’s going to take a lot of long-term effort for it to get to its all-time high of almost $20,000.
Statistics have shown that retail investors lost the most during this bearish market. This is why the major sell-off was no surprise. What’s more, these small scale investors are less likely to return to the market any time soon. Only older clients who believe in the industry will most likely remain.
The loss investors suffered didn’t just affect them financially, it also affected them emotionally and well. Imagine a new investor entering into the market when the price was as high as $19,500 and remaining in the market until it fell to as low as $4,200 and even lower. This can have a serious psychological effect on a person.
A Bitcoin and technology researcher, Boris Hristov had a lot to say about the current market conditions. According to him, the only way BTC is going to regain its garner legitimacy and composure is if institutional investors enter the market. However, because most of these investors aren’t willing to take the financial risks attached to trading cryptocurrencies, they do not want to get involved in the market. In his words:
“Some potential institutional candidates are Marco funds CTAs, multi-strategy funds and alternative strategies have about $600 billion AuM. Commodity assets alone that are held by hedge funds were $300 billion as at 2017. It makes up for 10% of the AuM. BTC may fall into this bucket. Macro funds are potential institutional candidates. However, the current circumstances are bleak.”
Making reference to custody investments like that of Fidelity and Goldman Sachs, he said that the playing field will soon be ripe for institutional investors. These services will help them to invest in a less volatile market through over the counter trading.
Down the street in CNBC’s broadcasting room, Sluymer pointed out the series of higher lows which the price of Bitcoin should hold at if the market stays in a bearish state.
He reiterated that he believes that Bitcoin is about to “challenge its downtrend,” with Bitcoin’s price movement possibly turning to the upside if it breaks through the current downtrend levels.
As well, he also pointed out that Bitcoin’s RSI was sitting at quite a low level, similar to the levels seen before previous temporary movements to the upside seen earlier this year.
The setup is there, but what we need to see is the token actually breakout and move through some very key levels.
However, like many analysts, Sluymer had something to say about the unlikely chance of a ‘worst comes to worst’ scenario.?But Sluymer has still shared the bullish sentiment with his co-worker, Tom Lee, saying:
If you’re short we think you should be very careful and reducing your short exposure. I think if you’re looking to be long this is where you start adding here to your long exposure.
Bitcoin prices in 2019 have been marked by volatility which has made bitcoin price prediction in short-term a bit of a challenge, even for the experienced analysts. So far, 2018 has presented its own surprises though not a dramatic as the rollercoaster we say in 2017.
History generally has a way of repeating itself but bitcoin has a lot of history which makes it an equal challenge predicting which history will be repeated. It takes more than a study of past trends to get predictions spot-on this time and so we ended this article by highlighting certain area expert analysts were looking at.
Analysts, enthusiast, and industry figures have very diverging opinions and bitcoin price predictions for both long and short-term. Optimism is still high in many quarters—reports of a new survey among British financials suggest a wide majority will buy more coins in hope of price resurgence later this year.
As we delve into who’s saying what and why, here’s a heads-up. Expect a lot more price fluctuations in the interim. It’s going to be a bumpy ride getting to wherever Bitcoin is headed by the year’s end.
John McAfee, Bitcoin supporter and founder of the popular McAfee antivirus software, is being very positive about Bitcoin. He predicted that Bitcoin price will hit $1 million by 2020 following last year’s prediction of $7000 which was well surpassed.
[perfectpullquote align=”full” bordertop=”false” cite=”” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=””]“BTC has accelerated much faster than my model assumptions. I now predict Bitcoin at $1 million by the end of 2020. I will still eat my d*** if wrong” – John McAfee[/perfectpullquote]
Apart from the economics behind the limited supply of Bitcoin, his prediction considered the factors like the increased adoption of Bitcoin and blockchain as well as a total cryptocurrency’s?market cap around $162 billion which gives large room for growth.
The Swiss-based financial expert will have us brace up for a decade of turbulence before any hope for a stable bitcoin. This he suggests will coincide with a general acceptance of Bitcoin even in hard-stance China. This though, not as a fiat replacement but a viable alternative.
[perfectpullquote align=”full” bordertop=”false” cite=”” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=””]“In my opinion, it will be at least 10 years before we see stability”.?– Kristjan Dekleva (Hedge)[/perfectpullquote]
The finance expert at cryptocurrency project Hedge sees Bitcoin investments as all-too-similar to the DotCom bubble of the 90s.
[perfectpullquote align=”full” bordertop=”false” cite=”” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=””]“In the short-term, falls have been driven by emotion and in many cases disinformation – a small rumor can have a big impact…Demand is driven by market speculation, but the absence of institutional investors means the market is unstable.[/perfectpullquote]
Instability it is. Next stop is the prestigious Harvard.
Known for his disparaging remarks against Bitcoin, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Kenneth Rogoff has poured icy water on hopes of Bitcoin making it to the moon.
[perfectpullquote align=”full” bordertop=”false” cite=”” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=””]“I think Bitcoin will be worth a tiny fraction of what it is now if we’re headed out 10 years from now…I would see $100 as being a lot more likely than $100,000.”– Kenneth Rogoff[/perfectpullquote]
Rogoff’s prediction is based on his long-held belief that governments will rise against anonymous virtual currencies like Bitcoin. Government regulations, according to Rogoff, will pop the Bitcoin bubble but a Bitcoin pioneer on Wall Street thinks along very different lines.
In 2014 with bitcoin at only $413, popular VC, Tim Draper predicted bitcoin to reach $10,000 in three years. This was fulfilled a month earlier than he predicated earning him a reputation among crypto fans.? He said he expected the Bitcoin to continue its growth in an interview with Bloomberg last year. Tim Draper has made successful bets with Tesla, Skype, and Twitter in the past.
Assuming this growth happens at the same pace as the 3-year journey to $10k then we’re in for six digits. Maniacal right? That’s exactly how Draper feels about Bitcoin prospects. Now onto someone who understands a lot about bitcoin’s foundation.
Last month, Llew Classen made a bold statement to reassure Bitcoin believers that the cryptocurrency is on the right track –specifically, on track to reach the $40,000 mark. Though his outlook for some altcoin holders was not very encouraging, he made it clear that as something new, cryptocurrency will be as risky as it is exciting.
One of the popular Winkelvoss twins, Cameron Winklevoss recently said that he could easily see the price of BTC go up 40% someday. This year maybe? Not likely. The twin said he and his brother were taking longer outlook, 10 to 20 years.
[perfectpullquote align=”full” bordertop=”false” cite=”” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=””]“Bitcoin is actually fixed in supply so it’s better than scarce … it sort of equals a better gold across the board. We think regardless of the price moves in the last few weeks, it’s still a very underappreciated asset.” –? Winklevoss [/perfectpullquote]
The fourth wealthiest cryptocurrency investor weighed bitcoin’s prospect against gold and came up with a resounding verdict. “We believe bitcoin disrupts gold,” He said.
Bobby Lee, CEO of China’s first Bitcoin exchange speaking at the London Blockchain Week went overboard with his prediction. Lee said bitcoin will surpass $1 million but unlike McAfee, he could see this happen in 20 years’ time.
[perfectpullquote align=”full” bordertop=”false” cite=”” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=””]“Bitcoin, I think will get to $1 million per bitcoin…Right now it’s 10,000, it will go 100,000 and then 200,000, 500,000.”– Bobby Lee[/perfectpullquote]
A good number of analysts have also had their say though very few would be drawn into actual predictions. We observed a general trend in their assessments.
At this stage, bitcoin and cryptocurrencies will be greatly affected by speculations. Even small developments in governments, traditional will likely affect prices. Most say the fluctuations are normal and wouldn’t affect the longer term outlook.
Experts would prefer to make predictions over a longer period. It is more common to have bitcoin price predictions for 2020 or a 10 to 20-year outlook. While the current reality may suggest some gloom, it’s worth remembering that the heights achieved last year came amidst similar corrections along the way. It’s only the 1st quarter of the year.
Though bitcoin may have a limited use case, it has been tipped to remain the king of all cryptocurrencies. It’s not going to be a case of?“which altcoin will overtake bitcoin” rather how they will impress with their special use cases. It is a fact that the technology behind bitcoin is less sophisticated when compared to many other projects like ethereum.
Gradually, bitcoin is being seen more as a store of value that an actual currency being compared to gold and other assets. Bitcoin was originally designed as an alternative currency to bank the unbanked. Most decision making bodies and financial experts, however, see Bitcoin more as a store of value, an asset rather than a medium of transaction.
Part of the process that will lead to general acceptance of cryptocurrencies will include a clean-up of “useless” cryptocurrencies. A good number of the 2000 coins will naturally go away as their value become worthless—some, only a fraction of cent. Brad Garlinghouse, the CEO of Ripple and Llew Claasen of Bitcoin Foundation are among those raising this alarm.
The limited supply of bitcoin—a fixed supply 21 million BTCs—will play a role in its price; if not now, in the future.
Many observers believe that outside factors which affect the adoption of bitcoin will ultimately dictate the price in the short-term. The creation and performance of futures markets, for instance, is expected to tilt the price either way.
Due to the anonymity of Bitcoin transactions, it has been used to conduct illegal activities giving Bitcoin a general bad image. This image, analysts believe will affect its adoption and ultimately its prospects in the future.
Crypto investments are new and super-risky. Remember ethereum founder saying that cryptos are so risky the prizes might actually drop to zero. Well, that doesn’t seem practical but the message was clear. Do not invest your life savings in bitcoin or cryptocurrencies generally. Just like John Draper noted, you still need to buy stuff in fiat. So while bitcoin will likely worth a lot more in the future, it’s advisable to invest just as much as one can afford to lose.